US dementia cases to double by 2060 with greater impact on women and Black communities

Scientists are warning that US dementia cases are projected to double in the next 35 years, with women, Black people and those over 75 facing the highest risks due to aging, unhealthy diets, health disparities and genetic factors.

Their research in the journal Nature Medicine also underlines that the risk of developing dementia after the age of 55 is 42%, which is more than double the rates measured by previous studies. The condition causes a decline in memory, concentration and judgment.

This year, dementia is expected to increase by half a million, and scientists believe it will reach a million new cases per year by 2060. 

“Our study results forecast a dramatic rise in the burden from dementia in the US over the coming decades, with one in two US citizens expected to experience cognitive difficulties after age 55,” says senior investigator and epidemiologist Josef Coresh, MD, Ph.D., who serves as the founding director of the Optimal Aging Institute at NYU Langone.

The researchers tracked the vascular health and cognitive function of nearly 16,000 participants from 1987. Of these, 3,252 study participants had developed dementia in 2020.

Risk factors 

Dementia risk is tied to genetic factors, high rates of hypertension and diabetes, obesity, unhealthy diets, lack of exercise and poor mental health.

According to the study findings, middle-aged US citizens have an overall lifetime risk of 42% for dementia, which is an average of 35% risk for men and 48% risk for women. The researchers explain the higher risk in women is due to lower death rates.

Findings also reveal a higher risk of dementia in Black adults and in those who carried a variant of the APOE4 gene (45%–60%). The gene causes cholesterol and other lipids to be taken in the bloodstream. 

Scientists say the rising number of dementia cases is directly due to the aging population.A particular form of APOE4 is believed to be the most significant genetic risk factor for late-onset Alzheimer’s disease, according to NYU Langone Health.

Aging population 

Additionally, scientists say the rising number of dementia cases is directly due to the aging population.

Coresh adds that the progressive decline in brain function is often seen to begin in middle age. 

He links dementia to the fact that women, in general, live longer than men and that 58 million US citizens are now over age 65.

The study’s other main finding was that people over 75 have a lifetime risk of dementia that rises to more than 50%.

However, NYU Langone Health notes previous findings suggest policy interventions on preventing heart disease and diabetes, alongside blood pressure control, can slow cognitive decline and prevent dementia.

“The pending population boom in dementia cases poses significant challenges for health policymakers in particular, who must refocus their efforts on strategies to minimize the severity of dementia cases, as well as plans to provide more healthcare services for those with dementia,” says Coresh.

Coresh stresses the importance of childhood education and nutrition, which other research has shown can help prevent cognitive decline in adulthood.Action points 

Coresh stresses the importance of childhood education and nutrition, which other research has shown can help prevent cognitive decline in adulthood.

Additionally, loss of hearing among adults is noted to increase dementia risk. Coresh suggests that people should monitor and test their hearing and seek government assistance programs to improve hearing health among older people. This is because only one-third of US citizens with hearing loss use hearing aids.

He advocates for more affordable hearing aids and greater resources to tackle racial inequities in healthcare. He warns dementia numbers among Black people will triple, and White people will double.

In other recent research, blood glucose and BMI levels in the US are rising, with scientists warning of worsening cardiometabolic health despite improving cholesterol and triglyceride levels. The study, which weighed 52,000 participants, represents 264 million adults.